Exxon &amp; Shell

Public RegisterNovember 1997

Mobil Corporation

advertorial sponsored essay · The New York Times Op-Ed Page Advertorial

“Reset the climate clock... The science of climate change is too uncertain to mandate a plan of action that could plunge economies into turmoil. Let's not rush to judgment before facts are in.”

Private ArtifactJuly 1977

James F. Black

Senior Scientific Advisor, Exxon Research & Engineering · Exxon Management Committee Briefing, Exxon Headquarters, NYC

“There is general scientific agreement that the most likely manner in which mankind is influencing the global climate is through carbon dioxide release from the burning of fossil fuels... mankind has a time window of 5 to 10 years before the need for hard decisions.”

The Split:Twenty years before Mobil bought full-page New York Times ads demanding we 'reset the climate clock' because the science was supposedly 'too uncertain', its senior scientist had already briefed the board that scientific agreement was clear and fossil fuels were the primary cause.

The Tell:When an energy firm pleads for 'more time to study the science' in an advertorial, check if their scientists concluded the study two decades earlier.

Pipe: journalism-archiveInvestigated by InsideClimate News and confirmed in Climate Files archive.

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testimony-gapenergy·1982 / unsealed 1996

Exxon 1982 prediction curve vs Lee Raymond 1996

Public Register1996

Lee Raymond

Chairman and CEO, Exxon Corporation · World Energy Congress Keynote Address

“Currently, the scientific evidence is inconclusive as to whether human activities are having a significant effect on the global climate. Projections of disaster are based on completely unproven models.”

Private ArtifactNovember 1982

M. B. Glaser

Exxon Environmental Affairs Program Manager · Exxon 'CO2 Greenhouse Effect' Technical Report (Restricted)

“Atmospheric CO2 concentration will reach 415 ppm around 2020, with global temperature increases of 1.0°C above 1970 levels. Mitigation of the 'greenhouse effect' would require major reductions in fossil fuel combustion.”

The Split:In 1996, CEO Lee Raymond ridiculed climate models as 'completely unproven'. In 1982, Exxon's own internal mathematical model predicted 2020 CO2 levels and temperature anomalies with astonishing precision (415 ppm, +1.0°C) matching observed reality.

The Tell:Dismissing models in public as 'unproven speculation' often conceals that internal planning runs on those exact same curves.

Pipe: journalism-archiveHarvard Science/Supran & Oreskes analysis published in Science (2023).

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advertorialenergy·1988 / unsealed 1995

Shell 1988 confidential greenhouse report

Public Register1995

Shell International Public Affairs

corporate advertising · International Public Campaign

“Shell is committed to meeting the world's energy demands cleanly and responsibly. Sound environmental policy must rest on validated scientific facts rather than alarmism.”

Private Artifact1988

Shell Planning Group

confidential strategy division · Confidential Report: 'The Greenhouse Effect'

“By the time the global warming becomes detectable, it could be too late to take effective countermeasures to reduce the effects... Changes in the atmosphere could lead to major shifts in agriculture, coastal inundation, and weather extremes.”

The Split:Shell cautioned against 'alarmism' in public marketing while keeping a confidential report in its files warning that waiting for warming to become detectable would be too late to prevent catastrophic coastal inundation.

The Tell:When an institution warns against 'premature alarmism', check whether its confidential strategy group already documented that waiting guarantees catastrophe.

Pipe: journalism-archiveLeaked to Dutch investigative journalist and posted to Climate Files.

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walk-backenergy·1989 / unsealed 1996

Shell raising North Sea drilling platforms by one meter

Public Register1996

Shell Norway PR

public relations · Press briefing on offshore engineering

“Our offshore installations are engineered with conservative safety margins against natural North Sea wave height fluctuations.”

Private Artifact1989

Shell / Statoil Troll Engineering Team

offshore engineering consortium · Troll Gas Field Specification Documents

“An extra one meter of platform air gap above high-tide level is incorporated specifically to mitigate projected 100-year sea level rise resulting from global greenhouse warming.”